Forecasting COVID-19 impact on hospital bed-days, ICU-days, ventilator days and deaths by US state in the next 4 months
http://www.healthdata.org/data-visualization/covid-19-us-state-state-projections
In Dr. Anthony Fauci’s statement to the press on 3/29/20, he stated that he used this model to validate his two working models for the spread of COVID-19 in the US. Based on this model, Dr Fauci recommended holding off laxing social distancing and re-evaluating the situation at the end of April. This model provides a comprehensive epidemiology modeling and forecasting of the current COVID-19 pandemic as it pertains to hospital bed stays, ICU-days, ventilator days and deaths by US states over the next 4 months. The model allows you to click on specific states to look at the projections over the next 4 months. If accurate, it could facilitate preparation and allocation of resources that include materials and manpower for the peak of the epidemic in each state
George Martin, MD commentary:
This is a comprehensive epidemiology modeling and forecasting of the current COVID-19 pandemic as it pertains to hospital bed stays, ICU-days, ventilator days and deaths by US states over the next 4 months. The model allows you to click on specific states to look at the projections over the next 4 months. If accurate, it could facilitate preparation and allocation of resources that include materials and manpower for the peak of the epidemic in each state. An example of how it many affect resource allocation is NY state. Gov. Cuomo was recently quoted in the media (March 27th NPR.org; Author Bobby Allyn) as needing 30,000 ventilators in the next 21 days. According to data in this model, NY state should only need 4,141 ventilators. This disparity hopefully can be resolved by careful communication with regard to resource management. The model also projects shortages and surpluses in ICU and hospital beds on a state by state basis.
Please be sure to visit the model and select your state. It is eye opening.
