MUST READ: The single BEST epidemiology modeling data based on Wuhan, Korea, Italy, Italy and endemic US. It is in summary form available updated 3/13.
Dr. Ted Rosen: This is an annotated comment on Puyeo article: This article is a long one, and a difficult read. Heavy on statistics, it’s not the type of manuscript anyone likes to read. Take the time. Digest the message. It’s simple: we are facing a crisis beyond compare in modern times. There are official COVID-19 cases reported daily which grossly underestimate the true number of cases, and many asymptomatic but infected individuals are unknowingly spreading the disease. Quickly. The overall death rate may be “only” 0.5-0.9%, but that depends upon availability of optimal health care. The latter will be impossible as the system is overwhelmed, and both personnel and equipment become scarce. The only real solution is a nearly universal and immediate lockdown. In effect, a virtual population-wide quarantine. Now.